Descent into Civil War (2006-2007)

3 waves of violence

Criminal activity, April 2003 onward

Anti-American insurgency, Aug. 2003 onward

Ex-Iraqi military and Ba’th party members, Sunni, and Shi'ite extremist militias

Iraqi civil war, 2006-2008

Sunni and Shi'ite militias and insurgents

"Death squads"

*“Ethnic cleansing”

Disagreements over proper succession after death of prophet Muhammad

*Sunni

Majority of Islamic believers

*Shi’ite

Minority in Islam

Majority in Iraq and Iran

Anderson 180-200; Riverbend, 173-95, 214-19, 241-46, 264-6, 276-86

Riverbend is a secular nationalist. How does she describe pre-war relations between Iraqis of various religions and ethnicities living in Baghdad?

What is her religion?

What is her opinion of Christians?

What is her opinion of Kurds?

What is her opinion of conservative Sunnis and Shi’ites who favor state religion and impose their views on others?

What is her opinion of extremist Sunnis and Shi’ites who use violence in the name of religion?

Based on your reading of Anderson, what provoked the Sunni Arab -Shi'ite Arab civil war by 2006?

What evidence does Riverbend provide that the seeds of ethnic and religious civil war are being planted in Iraq by 2003-4?

Iraq Governing Authorities

*Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA)

April 2003-June 2004

L. Paul Bremmer

Iraq Interim Government

Appointed June 2004-May 2005

*Iraqi Transitional Government

Elections, Jan. 2005

Sunni boycott

Served May 2005-May 2006

Iraq constitution approved, Oct. 2005

Iraqi Parliament Elections, Dec. 2005

Shi'ite-Sunni Arab Civil War, 2006-2008

Sparks setting off vicious cycle of violence

Iraq Parliamentary Elections, Dec. 2005

Sunni Arab vote (2/3 turnout)

Negotiations to form government, Dec 2005-May 2006

*Askariya "Golden Domed" shrine bombed, Feb. 2006

Samarra

Holy Shi'ite site

12th Imam

Iraqi government formed, May 2006

Shi'ite-Kurd coalition government

Sunni Arab parties excluded

*Nouri al-Maliki, Prime Minister

Da’awa Party Allied with Iran and U.S.

Seeds of conflict

Sunni Arabs exclusion and resentment

Ministries are spoils of Shi’ite and Kurdish political parties

Shi’ite Arabs dominate army

Tacit support for Shi’ite militias

Insurgents and Militias

Shi'ite (pro-Iran, anti-American and anti-Sunni)

Badr Brigade

Karbala

Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq

*Al-Mahdi Army

Baghdad (Sadr City) and Basra

*Moqtada al-Sadr

Health & Education minister

Sunni (anti-American and anti-Shi'ite)

*Ba'athists and other secular loyalists

IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices)

Mortars, assassinations

Islamic Fundamentalists (al-Qaeda)

Suicide bombings

How are events of early 2006 (shrine bombing in Feb., formation of government in May) reflected in Chart 1?

Chart 1: Ethno-Sectarian Deaths

(Source: CSIS Recent Trends in Iraq War, p. 8)

Chart 2: Attacks in Iraq

(Source: Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq, p. 25)

Sociological Theories of Religious-Ethnic Violence

Political conflict and instability

✓Repression breeds political awareness and resentment

Saddam's repression (Saddam was a secular Sunni)

Kurds in 1980s

Shi'ite Arabs in south in 1991

Shi’ite Parties form government in 2006

Sunni Arab boycott of elections and alienation

✓Regime shifts, political instability, weak states

U.S. occupation of Iraq 2003-2011

Various militias formed for self-protection and/or aggression

“Vicious cycles” of radicalization

✓Attacks increase mutual fear and resentment

Revenge killings

✓Special circumstances of rural Arab culture

Vendetta preserves family honor

Sparks setting off vicious cycle:

Bombing of the Askariya "Golden Domed" shrine, Feb. 2006

Shi’ite-Kurd Govt, May 2006