Shift in Demographics

        ï Evidence of an aging society

        ï What contributed to growing aging population?

        ï Segments of the older population

        ï Population pyramids

        ï Ethnic groups

        ï Table of the eQuestions and helpful links

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    Shift in Demographics

People over the age of 65 make up approximately12.5% of the population in the United States. This figure is projected to go up to 20% of the population by 2050 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000). Several countries already have larger percentages of older people than does the U.S. (See Table 1)

Table 1 Percentage of People Over 65
 

COUNTRY	PERCENTAGE
United States	13.0
Monaco	22.0
Italy	17.0
Sweden	17.0
United Kingdom	16.0
Japan	16.0
Germany	16.0
Denmark	15.0
Austria	15.0
Uruguay	13.0

Table based on data from Population Reference Bureau (1999) http://www.prb.org/

It should be noted that the older population is growing at different rates for countries throughout the world with many countries showing fairly low percentages of older adults.
 

Table 2
 

COUNTRY	PERCENTAGE
Canada	12.0
Australia	12.0
New Zealand	12.0
China	10.0
Israel	10.0
South Africa	5.0
Egypt	4.0
Bolivia	4.0
Guyana	4.0
Ghana	3.0
Rwanda	3.0
Bangladesh	3.0
Bahrain	2.0
Gaza	2.0

Table based on data from Population Reference Bureau (1999) http://www.prb.org/

eQuestion #1: Taking a look at tables 1 and 2 and the link to the Population Reference Bureau
                      (world population data sheet 1999) what strikes you about these data? Include other
                       countries not in these tables in your answer (Hint: go to http://www.prb.org).
 

Below is the percentage of the population in the U.S. that is 65 years and older by state.

Table 3

Population 65 years and over by state
 

STATE	PERCENTAGE
Florida	18.3
Pennsylvania	15.9
Rhode Island	15.6
West Virginia	15.2
Iowa	15.1
North Dakota	14.4
Arkansas	14.3
Connecticut	14.3
South Dakota	14.3
Maine	14.1
Massachusetts	14.0
District of Colombia	13.9
Nebraska	13.8
Missouri	13.7
New Jersey	13.6
Kansas	13.5
Ohio	13.4
Oklahoma	13.4
Hawaii	13.3
Montana	13.3
New York	13.3
Arizona	13.2
Oregon	13.2
Alabama	13.1
Wisconsin	13.2
Delaware	13.0
Indiana	12.5
Kentucky	12.5
Michigan	12.5
North Carolina	12.5
Tennessee	12.5
Illinois	12.4
Minnesota	12.3
Vermont	12.3
Mississippi	12.2
South Carolina	12.2
New Hampshire	12.0
Louisiana	11.5
Maryland	11.5
Nevada	11.5
Wyoming	11.5
New Mexico	11.4
Idaho	11.3
Virginia	11.3
California	11.1
Colorado	10.1
Texas	10.1
Georgia	9.9
Utah	8.8
Alaska	5.5

(U.S. Bureau Census Bureau, 2000 http://www.census.gov/)

eQuestion #2: Before going on to the next section, what are some things that you think have
                     contributed to the growing population of older adults in the United States? Also,
                     looking at the table below, what are your thoughts about the distribution of the
                     percentages of older adults across the United States?
 

What Contributed to the Growing Aging Population?

One item to note is that a high birth rate early on and to the mid-20^th century contributed to the increase in number and percentage of the older segment of the population. As can be seen in the table many people who were born between 1900 and 1940 are now 60 and older.

                A decline in the birth rate in recent decades.

Also seen in the table is a decline in birth rate over the years. A decline in birth rated is more important in increasing the percentage of older persons in a population than a decline in mortality rate. That is, an increase in number of births would lower the reported median age whereas, a decline in births would increase the reported median age.

                    Mortality Rate

A second factor has been discussed in the growth of an aging population--the decline in mortality.

Decline in Mortality

eQuestion #3: What are some factors that resulted in a decline in mortality rate?

The total mortality rate (number of deaths per 100,000) in 1960 was 1105 by 1988 that rate had dropped to 944. Several factors have lead to a decline in mortality (Crandall, 1991). They are:

                                            ï Reduction in infant mortality

                                            ï Reduction in maternal mortality

                                            ï Increase in sanitation

                                            ï Increase in personal hygiene

                                            ï Reduction of infectious diseases

                    Increase in Life Expectancy

Athird factor is an increase in life expectancy. People who study aging make a distinction between Life Expectancy and Life Span.
 
 
 

Life Expectancy	Life Span
Average number of years a person is expected to live	Maximum number of years that human beings can live (Approximately 120 years)
Can be measured from birth Which is most common but Can be measured from any given year
Men 73 years Women 80 years

 
 
 

Dramatic changes in life expectancy have occurred during the 20^th century. In 1900 the average life expectancy for both sexes was about 47 years of age. The average life expectancy in the year 2000 is 80 for women and 73 for men.

eQuestion #4: What are some things that you can think of that may explain why men and women
                     differ in life expectancy?

Segments of the Older Population

            Over 85

One of the fastest growing segments of the older population are those who are 85 years of age and older. In 1990 this group made up 1.2% of the population (Crandall, 1991). From 1960 to 1990. This segment of the older population grew 232% compared to 39% increase in the total U.S. population and compared to an 89% increase in the population of 65 years of age and older. By 2050, this group is expected to make up 5% of the total U. S. population.

Siegel and Tauber (1986) discuss a term called the ratio of two elderly generations. This term refers to the ratio of people 85 and older for every 100 persons 65-69 years of age. They project that in
 

1950 this ratio was 12:100

1990 this ratio was 30:100

2050 this ratio will be 93:100

 

            Over 100

At one time if you asked anyone if they would live to be 100, this question usually caused people to chuckle. It seemed that living to be 100 years of age was practically non-existent. In 1940, for instance, the number of people in the U.S. over 100 years of age was 3700. In 1990, that figure was now 61,000 people. By 2020, it is estimated that 214,000 people will be over 100 years of age. At this moment, females make up approximately 79% of people over 100 years old.

For more information about centenarians go to the following link :  http://www.nih.gov/nia/
       (Click news and events, then click press releases. In the browser page go to subjects: aging,
        general.Then click on the article "New census report shows exponential growth in number of
        centenarians.")

Population Pyramids

One way to illustrate the changes in the population by age is through the use of population pyramids. The tables below shows the population pyramid for 1990 and the projected population for 2100. Each horizontal bar represents a ten-year birth cohort (i.e., people born within the same 10-year period).

eQuestion#5: Describe some things that strike you about the two population pyramids? Include some
                    thoughts about the baby boomers.

Baby Boomers: Baby boomers were those born between the years 1946 (right after WWII) and 1964. The number of births in this period was 70% greater than the number of babies born in the previous two decades (http://www.asaging.org/ASA_Home_New5.cfm).(For this link: Go to publications, then to critical issues in aging).
 
 

Growth in Various Ethnic Groups

Minorities are the most rapidly growing sector of the older population.

African-Americans

The older African American population is projected to increase by 25.8% from 1990 to 2000 and 126% from 1990 to 2020. This increase is expected to more than twice that of older European Americans.

Latinos/Hispanics

This group is expected to increase seven-fold by 2050. That is, an increase from 4% to 12% by 2050.
 
 

Percent of population 65 years and over 1990 - 2050
 

	1990	2050
All Races	12.5	22.9
White	13.4	23.8
African American	8.2	20.3
Asian or Pacific Islander	5.9	19.3
Hispanic	5.1	15.6

 
 

Projected Life Expectancy at Birth 1999-2050

                            Ethnicity                                       1999                                            2050

White Male	74.1	81.2
White Female	80.1	86.4
African American Male	68.4	78.5
African American Female	75.1	84.6
American Indian Male	72.9	82.2
American Indian Female	82	89.2
Asian Male	80.9	84.8
Asian Female	86.5	89.7
Hispanic Male	77.2	83
Hispanic Female	83.7	88.4

 
 
 

    Atchley, R. C. (1996). Social forces and aging: An introduction to social gerontology. 8^th edition. Wadsworth Publishing.

    Crandall, R. C. (1991). Gerontology: A behavioral science approach. 2^nd edition. McGraw Hill: New York.

    Population Reference Bureau (1999) http://www.prb.org/

    U.S. Bureau of the Census (2000) http://www.census.gov/

    U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Center for Disease Control, National Center for Health Statistics (2000). http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/datawh.htm

Below are the eQuestions for this chapter along with links that will help you answer the eQuestions as well as help you answer the writing assignments. Enjoy.

Chapter 1

eQuestion #1: Taking a look at tables 1 and 2 and the link to the Population Reference Bureau
                      (world population data sheet 1999) what strikes you about these data? Include other
                       countries not in these tables in your answer.
 
 
 
 

eQuestion #2: Before going on to the next section, what are some things that you think have
                     contributed to the growing population of older adults in the United States? Also,
                     looking at the table below, what are your thoughts about the distribution of the
                     percentages of older adults across the United States?
 
 
 

eQuestion #3: What are some factors that resulted in a decline in mortality rate?
 
 
 

eQuestion #4: What are some things that you can think of that may explain why men and women
                     differ in life expectancy?
 
 

eQuestion#5: Describe some things that strike you about the two population pyramids? Include some
                    thoughts about the baby boomers.
 
 
 

Links that will help you answer the questions and other writing assignments:

http://www.prb.org/

http://www.census.gov/

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/datawh.htm

http://www.nih.gov/nia/

http://www.asaging.org/ASA_Home_New5.cfm
 

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