Egypt Continuity and Change in Politics

Theories of Political Impact of Globalization

Westernization/Americanization

Optimists: “Universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.” (Francis Fukuyama)

“Clash of Civilizations” ” (Samuel Huntington)

Pessimistic

Islamic extremism (ISIS, al-Qaida)

Glocalization (Hybridization)?

"Paper Democracy"

*“Paper Democracy” in Egypt

President Anwar Sadat, 1970-81

National Democratic Party (NDP)

Political parties “legalized” 1976

Political Parties Committee

President Hosni Mubarak, 1981-2011

Emergency Law

Dictatorship

Defining Strategic Interests

American Foreign Policy

Idealist mission vs. Strategic interests

Case of Afghanistan

“War on Terror,” 2002

Nation-building based on idealistic principles

Case of Egypt

Israel-Egypt peace treaty, 1979

*Suez Canal

Egyptian military cooperation in Middle East

Persian Gulf Oil supplies

“War on Terror”

Economist Democracy Index, 2008

Full democracies

Sweden, 1

Canada, 11

Germany, 13

Japan, 20

U.S., 18

Czech Republic, 19

Uruguay, 23

Flawed democracies

Mexico, 55

Hybrid regimes

Venezuela, 95

Russia, 107

Iraq, 116 (last)

*Authoritarian regimes

Egypt, 119

Cuba, 125

Afghanistan, 138

Tunisia, 141

Iran, 145

Libya, 159

(Blue=Ally of U.S.; Red=Hostile to U.S.)

Economist Democracy Index 2008 by Regime Type

Criteria

1. Electoral process and pluralism

2. Functioning of government

3. Political participation (category w/ lowest score for U.S.)

4. Political culture (trust in political parties & govt. system)

5. Civil liberties

Case Study of Egyptian Elections of 2005

Bush Administrations Democracy Initiative

Justification for Iraq war

Cure for Islamic radicalism

Parliamentary Elections, 2005

National Democratic Party, 68.5%

Muslim Brotherhood, 20%

Running as Independents

From 17 to 88 seats

Intimidation and ballot stuffing

Presidential election, 2005

1st Egyptian presidential election with multiple candidates

Presidential vote

Mubarak, 88%

Ayman Nur, 7%

Convicted of "forgery" in Dec. 2005

Real crime?

Read his internet appeal while still in jail

Released Feb. 2009

Significance of date?

Parliamentary Election Results: 2005 and 2010

Discussion: Steger, pp. 120-23; Amin,Whatever Else Happened to the Egyptians?, pp. 145-186

Why do the circus, train fire, and doctorate reflect problems with economic development and corruption in the Egyptian political system in the 2000s?

Who or what does Amin blame for these problems?

Does he blame President Mubarak directly or indirectly? Why?

What changes have occurred in Egyptian views of political allegiance and religious belief over the past half century?

What roles have globalization and political changes played in changing people’s views of religion and government?

Political Allegiance & Religious Belief

Person	Allegiance/Belief	Period
Grandfather	Islamic spiritual community (umma)	British Protectorate 1882-1922
Father	Islamic nationalism	“Constitutional” monarchy 1922-1952
Amin	Egyptian nationalism	1952 Revolution “Arab Socialism” 1952-74
Son	Apolitical & cynical	Infitah (open door) 1975- Present

3rd Egyptian Revolution, Feb. 11, 2011

*President Hosni Mubarak, 1981-2011

National Democratic Party (NDP)

Arab Spring, 2011

Tunisia Protests, Dec. 2010

Government overthrown Jan. 2011

Egypt Protests Jan. 2011

Army forces Mubarak’s resignation Feb. 11, 2011

*Arab Spring protests

Globalization's role

Internet exchange of news and ideas

Local conditions

Dissatisfaction with Economy/Politics

Egyptian "Deep State"

Army forces resignation, Feb. 2011

Parliamentary Election Results, Jan. 2012

Freedom and Justice Party-235 seats (47.2%)

*Muslim Brotherhood (Conservative Sunni Muslim)

Nour Party - 121 seats (24.3%)

Salafi (Conservative Sunni Muslim)

New Wafd Party - 38 seats (7.6%)

Egyptian Bloc - 34 seats (6.8%)

Other parties - 44 seats (8.8%)

Independents - 26 seats (5.2%)

Mainstream political Islam

Muslim Brotherhood (Sunni)

Middle class

Salafi (Sunni)

Urban and rural poor

Saudi Arabian influence

Military suspends Parliament, June 13, 2012

Presidential Elections, June 17, 2012, 52% turnout

Muhammad Mursi (51.7%)

Muslim Brotherhood (Sunni Muslim)

Ahmed Shafiq (48.3%)

Fromer NDP ("Deep State")

Key Events, 2012-13

Mursi took office, June 30, 2012

Continuity in authoritarian tendencies

Tammarud (Rebellion) Protests, June 2013

June 2013

Deep state?

Military coup, July 3, 2013

Military crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood protests, August 2013

Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, “elected” president, June 2014

Graduate of Egyptian Military Academy and U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, PA!

Continuity in “Deep State” authoritarianism