Japan’s Road to Pacific War

What were Japan’s strategic vulnerabilities, ca. 1940?

Colonial Empire, late 1930s

Korea and Taiwan

15% of rice (1938-41)

Manchukuo and North China

20% of iron

20% of coal (1943)

2/3 of Japan’s energy was generated by coal

8% of steel

United States (1/3 of all imports)

74% of scrap iron (1938)

52% of copper (1939)

80% of oil

Essential source of energy for Army vehicles and Navy ships

Japan's Strategic Choices, 1940-41

Vulnerability

Economic dependence on imports of raw materials

Opportunities

China's disunity

American isolationism

War in Europe, 1939-41

Germany invades Czechoslovakia, March 1939

Nazi-Soviet Nonaggression pact, August 23, 1939

Germany invades Poland, September 1, 1939

Britain and France declare war on Germany, Sept. 3

Soviets invade Poland & Baltic States, Sept. 17

Germany invades Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Netherlands, France, Spring 1940

Treaties

*Tripartite pact (Japan, Germany, Italy), Sept. 27, 1940

*Japan's Neutrality treaty with Soviets Union, April 13, 1941

What were the advantages and disadvantages of these treaties for Japan? Why was it tempting for Japan’s leadership to sign these particular treaties?

Surprise in Europe

German invasion of Soviet Union, June 22, 1941

Strategic Options

Opportunity: War in Europe

Keep status quo

Colonies in Taiwan, Korea, Manchuria

Armies bogged down in China

Negotiate settlement with U.S.

Northern strategy

Attack Soviet Union

Southern strategy

French, Dutch, British colonies in Asia
French Indo-China occupied, July 1941

US-Japan negotiations, 1941

US public opinion favors China

Japanese withdrawal from China

Non-intervention in Asian affairs

Japan: Continuation of puppet regimes

Peter Duus: both sides self-righteous

America: Ideals of liberty justify protection of European and American colonies

Japan: Hypocritical criticism of American imperialism and racism

U.S. Economic sanctions against Japan

Embargoes, 1940

Scrap, iron, steel, aviation fuel

Japanese assets in US frozen, July 25,1941

US bans oil exports, Aug. 1, 1941

Dutch E. Indies bans oil, aluminum exports

US + Dutch East Indies = 90% of Japan's oil

The Road to War, 1941

Japan

U.S.

Short-term advantage

Long-term advantage

Already prepared for war

Greater capacity to wage war

Options

Options

Invade SE Asia for resources
Pull out of China for peace
Find face-saving compromise to avoid war
Retain sanctions and prepare for war
Find compromise that relieves pressure on China and delays or avoids war

War cabinet , Oct. 1941

*Prince Konoe resigns

*General Tōjō Hideki

Control Faction

Planned economy

Cabinet positions

Appointed Prime Minister

Continued as Army Minister

Home Minister, 1941-2

Not dictator

Army and Navy Chiefs of Staff report to Emperor

Surprise attacks, December 7 (December 8 in Asia), 1941

Pearl Harbor, Wake Is., Guam, Midway Is., Philippines, Hong Kong, Singapore

Invasion of SE Asia and Pacific islands, 1941-42

Hong Kong, Dec. 25, 1941
Singapore, Feb. 15, 1942
British Malaysia, March 1942
Dutch E. Indies, March 1942
Philippines

Air raid 12/8/41

Invasion, Jan-May 1942