The Shippensburg University SIAM Student Chapter is pleased to invite participation in the third annual Mid-Atlantic Applied Mathematics Student Conference to be held April 6-7, 2012 on the campus of Shippensburg University in partnership with the SIAM Student Chapters at University of Delaware, George Mason University, Penn State University, University of Maryland - Baltimore County, and University of Pittsburgh. (Click here to download a poster) to advertise this event.
Our keynote speaker will be:
Dr. Carlos Castillo-Chavez
Regents
Professor and Joaquin Bustoz Professor of Mathematical
Biology
Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences
Center,
Arizona State University
Epidemiological Models in Action: from SARS to Influenza
Abstract: The concept of threshold or tipping point, a mathematical expression that characterizes the conditions needed for a drastic transition between epidemiological states, is critical to the study of the transmission dynamics and control of diseases. The modeling and mathematical work of Sir Ronald Ross Ross1911 and his “students” Kermack and McKendrick (1927, 1932) established the field of mathematical epidemiology, intimately connected to the study of the dynamics of ecological systems, that include host-parasite systems. In their 1927 classical paper, A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics, W. O. Kermack and A. G. McKendrick introduced a simple deterministic model that turned out to capture rather well the qualitative dynamic behavior of single epidemic outbreaks. In this lecture, I will briefly review the history of the field of mathematical epidemiology in the context of communicable diseases. The emergence SARS in 2003 and the re-emergence of influenza in 2009 have not only highlighted the limitations of the existing mathematical framework and theory but pointed into natural directions for extensions. In this lecture, we introduce a generalized version of the Kermack-McKendrick framework that can be used to quantify the impact of variable waiting time distributions, infectious and quarantine, that is, delays disease dynamics. Memory-less distributions, geometric or exponential, set the baseline or null epidemiological scenarios used to test the relevance of delays on the dynamics of single epidemic outbreaks. We explicitly highlight final size relationships involving the control reproduction number, a function of transmission parameters and the means of distributions used to model disease or intervention control measures. Model results and simulations are used to highlight the kind of inconsistencies in forecasting that emerge from the use of specific parametric distributions*. The use of optimal control theory to assess the relative cost of intervention measures is briefly addressed.The work presented involves (*Hernandez Ceron, Nancy, Z. Feng) and the contributions of several collaborators including Sunmi Lee, Paula Gonzalez Parra, Leticia Velazquez and Carlos Torre
References
· Kermack, W.O. and McKendrick, A.G. (1927): A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics, I. Proc. R. Soc. A 115:700-721 (reprinted in Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 53 33-55)
· Kermack, W.O. and McKendrick, A.G. (1932): A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics, part II. Proc. R. Soc. London 138: 55-83.
· Ross, R. (1911): The prevention of Malaria, 2nd Edition, with addendum, John Murray, London.
· Brauer Fred and Carlos Castillo-Chavez: Mathematical Models in Population Biology and Epidemiology, Texts in Applied Mathematics, 40. Springer-Verlag, 416 pages, 2001
· Brauer F. and C. Castillo-Chavez: Mathematical Models in Population Biology and Epidemiology, 2nd Edition, Texts in Applied Mathematics, 40. Springer-Verlag, 530 pages, 2012
· *Hernandez Ceron, Nancy, Z. Feng and C. Castillo-Chavez, Discrete epidemic models with arbitrary stage distributions and applications to disease control (manuscript)
Schedule (Tentative)
Abstracts (click here)
Dr. Elizabeth Ayers
American Institutes for Research
Dr. Chandra Erdman
U.S. Census Bureau
Dr. Anthony Kearsley
National Institute of Standards and Technology
Dr. David Murillo
American Express
Barry Thorton
National Security Agency
Submit abstracts here (preferred), or send e-mail to pitt.siam@gmail.com with title, author(s), faculty advisor(s), and abstract, all typed directly in the text of the email. Students may present a 20 minute talk (with 5 minute Q&A) or a poster presentation. The oral presentations can be talks on undergraduate/graduate research or a presentation by a COMAP team showing Mathematical Contest in Modeling solution. We will be creating our own latex & pdf documents from the submissions. Submissions should be received by Wednesday, March 21, 2012.
To offset the expenses of refreshments and lunch, we are charging a modest registration fee of $5 for each attendee. To register for the conference in advance, send a check made out to Shippensburg University along with the name(s) and affiliation of all those registering. This information should be mailed to Dr. Luis Melara, Department of Mathematics, Shippensburg University, Shippensburg, PA 17257 to be received by March 21, 2012.
Registration fees can also be paid in cash on site, but we would appreciate an e-mail in advance by March 21, 2012, with your name and affiliation, so we have the correct count for lunch and refreshments. The e-mail should be directed to Dr. Melara at lamelara@ship.edu.
DIRECTIONS & PARKING: Click here for directions to Shippensburg and a campus map. The MCT building is #35 on this map. Once on campus, you may park in any lot designated as Faculty, Staff, or Commuter. We recommend parking in the lot between buildings #8 and #9 and entering the front door of DHC (building #27) and walking all the way through to the MCT building.
LODGING: There is no block of rooms reserved for this conference, but if you do need to stay over, available options are:
Best Western Shippensburg Hotel
125 Walnut Bottom Road
Shippensburg, PA 17257
Phone: (717) 532-5200;
fax: (717) 532-7148;
url:
www.bestwestern.com/shippensburghotel
Shippen Place,
32 East King St., Shippensburg, PA 17257
Phone: (717) 532-4141;
fax (717) 532-5142;
url: http://www.shippenplace.com/
STUDENT TRAVEL & LODGING FUNDS AVAILABLE: Limited funding
for lodging & reimbursement for mileage traveled (up to 120 miles
each way) is provided for student presenters. A block of rooms
has been reserved for student participants and the cut-off date is
Tuesday March 21, 2012. If we don't hear from you by this date,
we may not be able to cover lodging expenses in full.
This program is a National Security Agency sponsored activity, NSA Grant Number H98230-11-1-0229.
Last updated on April 6, 2012.
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